Musk on X, March 2024. "All training is for Hardware 3." Two years later, it's all HW4-only.

What Musk said

On 30 March 2024, Elon Musk responded to a question on X about the relationship between Hardware 3 and Hardware 4 for FSD. His answer:

Hardware 4 will ultimately be better, but all training is for Hardware 3, with HW4 running in emulation mode.

Why this matters

This statement is strong evidence for three reasons.

1. It's a direct commitment. Musk doesn't say HW3 is "being considered" or "not completely given up on" (the walkback Tesla would make later in Q3 2025). He says all training is for HW3. Not "most of it". Not "some of it". All of it.
2. HW4 is secondary at that point. Musk explicitly states that HW4 in March 2024 was running in emulation mode, meaning it was emulating the HW3 model. HW3 was the primary development platform.
3. The timeline is devastating. March 2024: "all training is for HW3." January 2025: "we will need to replace all HW3 computers." October 2025: "we've not completely given up on hardware 3." April 2026: RDW approves FSD, exclusively for AI4. In two years, HW3 went from primary development platform to unsupported for the approved version.

Not a private remark

This statement was made on X, publicly, to millions of followers. It's not an internal memo or a leaked email. It's a public declaration from Tesla's CEO to his customer base. Every HW3 owner who in March 2024 was considering keeping their car, renewing their FSD subscription, or buying a new subscription, could and was entitled to rely on this statement.

The timeline in five steps

In nineteen months, the position went from "all training is for HW3" to "not completely given up on". That's not evolving insight. That's a pattern of promises being systematically walked back.

Verification

The X post is publicly available:

• https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1773882855762047301